How voters' perceptions of junior coalition partners depend on the prime minister's position
Corresponding Author
David Fortunato
University of California–Merced, USA
Address for correspondence: David Fortunato, University of California–Merced, 5200 N. Lake Road, Merced, CA 95343, USA. E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
David Fortunato
University of California–Merced, USA
Address for correspondence: David Fortunato, University of California–Merced, 5200 N. Lake Road, Merced, CA 95343, USA. E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Recent studies document that voters infer parties' left-right policy agreement based on governing coalition arrangements. This article extends this research to present theoretical and empirical evidence that European citizens update their perceptions of junior coalition partners' left-right policies to reflect the policies of the prime minister's party, but that citizens do not reciprocally project junior coalition partners' policies onto the prime minister's party. These findings illuminate the simple rules that citizens employ to infer parties' policy positions, broaden understanding of how citizens perceive coalition governance and imply that ‘niche’ parties, whose electoral appeal depends upon maintaining a distinctive policy profile, assume electoral risks when they enter government.
Supporting Information
Filename | Description |
---|---|
ejpr12094-sup-0001-si.pdf104.2 KB |
Figure S1. Results of Error Clustering Exercise for Junior Partner Model (Test of Hypothesis 1) Percentage Change to the Standard Error for Each Parameter Figure S2. Results of Error Clustering Exercise for Prime Minister Model (Test of Hypothesis ) Percentage Change to the Standard Error for Each Parameter Figure S3. Substantive effects from PM Model presented in Table 4 of the Main Text Table S1. Analysis of Survey Respondents' Placements of Prime Ministers – Junior Partner CMP interactions removed |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
References
- Adams, J. et al. (2006). Are niche parties fundamentally different from mainstream parties? The causes and the electoral consequences of Western European parties' policy shifts, 1976–1998. American Journal of Political Science 50(3): 513–529.
- Adams, J., Haupt, A. & Stoll, H. (2009). What moves parties? The role of public opinion and global economic conditions in Western Europe. Comparative Political Studies 42(5): 611–639.
- Adams, J., Ezrow, L. & Somer-Topcu, Z. (2011). Is anybody listening? Evidence that voters do not respond to European parties' policy statements during elections. American Journal of Political Science 55(2): 370–382.
- Akkerman, T. & De Lange, S.L. (2012). Radical right parties in office: Incumbency records and the electoral cost of governing. Government and Opposition 47(4): 574–596.
- Bakker, R. et al. (2012). Measuring party positions in Europe: The Chapel Hill Expert Survey trend file, 1999–2010. Party Politics 21(1): 143–152.
- Budge, I. & Meyer, T. (2013). Understanding and validating the left-right scale. In A. Volkens et al. (eds), Mapping policy preferences from texts III: Statistical solutions for manifesto analysts. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Calvo, E. & Hellwig, T. (2011). Centripetal and centrifugal incentives under different electoral systems. American Journal of Political Science 55(1): 27–41.
- Cox, G. (1987). Electoral equilibria under alternative voting institutions. American Journal of Political Science 31(1): 82–108.
- Cox, G. (1990). Centripetal and centrifugal incentives in electoral systems. American Journal of Political Science 34(4): 903–935.
- Dalton, R.J. (1985). Political parties and political representation: Party supports and party elites in nine nations. Comparative Political Studies 18(3): 267–299.
- Dalton, R.J., Farrell, D.M. & McAllister, I. (2011). Political parties and democratic linkage: How parties organize democracy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Delli Carpini, M.X. & Keeter, S. (1996). What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
- Duch, R.M. & Stevenson, R.T. (2008). The economic vote: How political and economic institutions condition election results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Duch, R., Przepiorka, W. & Stevenson, R.T. (forthcoming). Responsibility attribution for collective decision makers. American Journal of Political Science.
- Donadio, R. & Kitsantonis, N. (2012). Before Greek coalition forms, questions about its resolve. New York Times, 19 June.
- Eddy, M. (2013). Merkel's conservative bloc sounds out possible partners. New York Times, 4 October.
- Elias, A. & Tronconi, F. (2011). From protest to power: Autonomist parties in government. Party Politics 17(4): 505–524.
- Ezrow, L. (2008). Parties' policy programmes and the dog that didn't bark: No evidence that proportional systems promote extreme party positioning. British Journal of Political Science 38(3): 479–497.
- Ezrow, L. (2010). Linking citizens and parties: How electoral systems matter for political representation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Fernandez-Vazquez, P. (2014). And yet it moves: The effect of election manifestos on party policy images. Comparative Political Studies 47(14): 1919–1944.
- Fortunato, D. (2013). The Electoral Implications of Coalition Policy-Making. Manuscript. University of California, Merced.
- Fortunato, D. & Stevenson, R.T. (2013a). Perceptions of partisan ideologies: The effect of coalition participation. American Journal of Political Science 57(2): 459–477.
- Fortunato, D. & Stevenson, R.T. (2013b). Heuristics and Coalition Expectations. Unpublished manuscript, Rice University.
- Fortunato, D., Martin, L.W. & Vanberg, G. (2014). Committee Chairs and Legislative Review in Parliamentary Democracies. Manuscript. Rice University.
- Ganghof, S. & Bräuninger, T. (2006). Government status and legislative behaviour: Partisan veto players in Australia, Denmark, Finland and Germany. Party Politics 12(4): 521–539.
- Glasgow, G., Golder, M. & Golder, S. (2011). Who ‘wins’? Determining the party of the prime minister. American Journal of Political Science 55(4): 937–954.
- Goodin, R.E. (1996). Institutions and their design. In The theory of institutional design. New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Iversen, T. (1994). The logics of electoral politics: Spatial, directional and mobilization effects. Comparative Political Studies 27(2): 155–189.
- King, G., Tomz, M. & Wittenberg, J. (2000). Making the most of statistical analyses: Improving interpretation and presentation. American Journal of Political Science 42(2): 341–355.
- Kitschelt, H. (1994). The transformation of European social democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Klingemann, H.-D. et al. (2006). Mapping policy preferences II: Estimates for parties, electors and governments in Eastern Europe, the European Union and the OECD, 1990–2003. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Kluver, H. & Sagarzazu, I. (2014). Friends in Government and Foes in Elections: Political Communications Strategies of Coalition Parties. Typescript.
- M. Laver & K.A. Shepsle (eds) (1994). Cabinet ministers and parliamentary government. New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Lowe, W. et al. (2011). Scaling policy preferences from coded political texts. Legislative Studies Quarterly 36(1): 123–155.
- Martin, L. & Stevenson, R.T. (2001). Government formation in parliamentary democracies. American Journal of Political Science 45(1): 33–50.
- Martin, L. & Stevenson, R.T. (2010). The conditional impact of incumbency on government formation. American Political Science Review 104(3): 503–518.
- Martin, L.W. & Vanberg, G. (2011). Parliaments and coalitions: The role of legislative institutions in multiparty governance. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- McDonald, M.D., Mendes, S.M. & Kim, M. (2007). Cross-temporal and cross-national comparisons of party left-right positions. Electoral Studies 26(1): 62–75.
- Meguid, B. (2005). Competition between unequals: The role of mainstream party strategy and niche party success. American Political Science Review 99(3): 347–360.
- Meguid, B.M. (2008). Party competition between unequals. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Paldam, M. & Skott, P. (1995). A rational-voter explanation of the cost of ruling. Public Choice 83(1–2): 159–172.
- Poguntke, T. & Webb, P. (2004). The presidentialization of democracy: A study in comparative politics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Rudig, W. (2006). Is government good for greens? Comparing the electoral effects of coalition Participation in Western and East Central Europe. European Journal of Political Research 45(1): 120–134.
- Snyder, J.M., Ting, M.M. & Ansolabehere, S. (2005). Legislative bargaining under weighted voting. American Economic Review 95(4): 981–1004.
- Spoon, J.-J. (2011). Political survival of small parties in Europe. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
- Stevenson, R.T. (1997). How Parties Compete: Electoral Performance and Cabinet Participation in Parliamentary Democracies. Doctoral dissertation, University of Rochester.
- Stevenson, R.T. (2002). The cost of ruling, cabinet duration and the ‘median-gap’ model. Public Choice 113(1–2): 157–178.
- Strøm, K. (1990). Minority government and majority rule. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Thies, M. (2001). Keeping tabs on partners: The logic of delegation in coalition government. American Journal of Political Science 45(3): 580–598.
- Tomz, M. & Van Houweling, R.P. (2012). Political Repositioning. Typescript, Stanford University.
- A. Volkens et al. (eds) (2013). Mapping policy preferences from texts III: Statistical solutions for manifesto analysts. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Wagner, M. (2012). Defining and measuring niche parties. Party Politics 18(6): 845–864.
- Warwick, P. (1996). Coalition government membership in West European parliamentary democracies. British Journal of Political Science 26(4): 471–499.
- Whitten, G. & Williams, L. (forthcoming). Don't Stand So Close to Me: Spatial Contagion Effects and Party Competition. American Journal of Political Science.